This is not a hunch. It is a list of firsts.
In the span of a few years, structural facts that held for a generation or a lifetime broke, one after another. The rear-view does not price the turn, and the turn is where tomorrow's wealth is built.
01Tariffs not seen since 1930The US effective rate is back near Smoot-Hawley levels. The frictionless globalization that priced every supply chain for forty years is over.
02The German debt brake, loosenedThe discipline written into the Basic Law in 2009, loosened in 2025 to fund defense and infrastructure. The most disciplined sovereign blinked.
03Interest expense passed defenseFor the first time in modern history the US spends more servicing its debt than defending the country. The Third Mandate is subordinating the others.
04The 60/40 brokeIn 2022 stocks and bonds fell together, and the correlation flipped positive for the first time in a generation. The diversification retirement was built on stopped working.
05The 40-year bond bull endedYields bottomed in 2020 and the longest bond bull in history reversed. A whole career of "rates only go down" priors is now wrong.
06Reserves were frozenA G20 central bank's reserves were frozen for the first time in 2022. Central banks have been net buyers of gold at the fastest pace in decades since.
07A monetary asset went institutionalSpot bitcoin entered the US investment mainstream in 2024, three years after Canada launched North America’s first spot bitcoin ETFs in 2021.
08The first GPT shock since the internetAI is repricing labor, capital expenditure, and the cost of cognition itself. There is no trailing window for what happens next, because there never has been one.
09China's population shrankFor the first time since the 1960s the demographic engine of global growth and disinflation went into reverse.
10Industrial policy came backThe US ran its first major industrial policy in generations. The state allocates capital again, and the "government stays out" market structure is obsolete.